1.- Quantifying Relational Dynamics: Integrating a Psychological Factor into Actuarial Divorce-Risk Modeling and Premium Differentiation

This paper is conceived as a direct extension of the baseline actuarial framework developed in Vidal-Meliá (2025), which deliberately focused on observable demographic and socioeconomic variables as a transparent proof of concept, while explicitly recognizing that many of the most proximate and potentially most predictive drivers of marital dissolution are relational and psychological. Against that background, the present study addresses four closely related questions within a single integrated framework. First, it examines whether such relationship-process dynamics can be operationalized through a psychological-based Factor 11 that remains theoretically interpretable and empirically tractable within actuarial divorce-risk modeling. Second, it asks how the inclusion of Factor 11 changes predicted divorce probabilities, relationship survival, and the broader persistence of the marital union relative to the baseline model. Third, it investigates whether the extended framework can generate richer couple-level actuarial persistence measures, most notably, the truncated expected duration for which both spouses remain alive and continuously married, together with a decomposition of union termination into divorce, mortality, and overlap components. Finally, it evaluates whether this unified actuarial backbone, combining dynamic divorce probabilities with biological and relational survival, can support the coherent valuation, segmentation, and pricing of a family of marital-risk products within a common computational setting.