Current Research lines | Carlos Vidal-Meliá

CURRENT RESEARCH LINES

Instruments to Improve the PAYG System 2.0: Minimum Pensions, Disability, and Long-Term Care (Since 2012)

Description and Objectives:This research line expands actuarial analysis methodology toward an «open group» approach with accrual, integrating complex biometric risks. Its primary objectives are: designing Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) systems that absorb the volatility of disability and long-term care (LTC) contingencies; developing integrated Actuarial Balance Sheets (ABS) that reveal the true cost of redistribution and minimum pensions; and evaluating the disruptive impact of Industry 4.0 on financial sustainability, proposing adjustment mechanisms in response to labor market automation.
Researchers and Participation (out of 23 items):Manuel Ventura-Marco (11/23), Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero (6/23), Anne Marie Garvey (6/23), María del Carmen Boado-Penas (5/23), Javier Pla-Porcel (4/23), Ahmed Ación López (2/23), Marta Regúlez Castillo (1/23), Francisco Navarro-Cabo (1/23), Anna Castañer (1/23), and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (23/23).
Publications and Working Papers (APA Format):

◦ Disability Sub-line:

▪ Garvey, A. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2021). Does the pension system’s income statement really matter? A proposal for an NDC scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 292-310. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1782246

▪ Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. International Social Security Review, 70(3), 79-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12143

▪ Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2016). Integrating retirement and permanent disability in NDC pension schemes. Applied Economics, 48(12), 1081-1102. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1093084

▪ Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2014). An Actuarial Balance Sheet Model for Defined Benefit Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems with Disability and Retirement Contingencies. ASTIN Bulletin, 44(2), 367-415. https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2014.5

◦ Long-Term Care (LTC) Sub-line:

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Garvey, A. (2024). Analyzing the demographic coherence of selected US, Australian and Chinese biometric data sets. Quality & Quantity, 58, 2813–2836. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01782-w

▪ Ventura-Marco, M., Vidal-Meliá, C., & Pérez-Salamero González, J. M. (2023). Joint life care annuities to help retired couples to finance the cost of long-term care. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 113, 122-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.002

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Pla-Porcel, J. (2020). An NDC approach to helping pensioners cope with the cost of long-term care. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 19(1), 80-108. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747218000070

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Pla-Porcel, J. (2019). Unisex life care annuities embedded in a pay-as-you-go pension system. Journal of Population Ageing, 12(4), 405-426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-018-9229-3

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Pérez-Salamero, J. M. (2018). Social insurance accounting for a notional defined contribution scheme combining retirement and long-term care benefits. Sustainability, 10(8), 2832. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082832

▪ Pla-Porcel, J., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2017(10), 829-853. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2016.1258370

▪ Pla-Porcel, J., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2016). Life Care Annuities (LCA) Embedded in a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Framework. ASTIN Bulletin, 46(2), 331-363. https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2015.27

◦ Notional Accounts / Actuarial Balances Sub-line:

▪ Castañer, A., Garvey, A. M., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Transforming Eurostat’s Table 29 into an Actuarial Balance Sheet. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(9), 528. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18090528

▪ Garvey, A., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2023). Transforming the supplementary table on pension liabilities (table 29) into an actuarial balance sheet. Public Money and Management, 43(8), 782-793. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2022.2144362

▪ Garvey, A. M., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2022). Improving decision-making information: “Table 29” to an actuarial balance sheet. In M. Corazza et al. (Eds.), Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance (pp. 477–484). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99638-3_46

▪ Garvey, A. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2021). The importance of reporting a pension system’s income statement and budgeted variances in a fair and sustainable scheme. In M. Corazza et al. (Eds.), Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance (pp. 275–282). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78965-7_34

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., Boado-Penas, M. del C., & Navarro-Cabo, F. (2016). Notional defined contribution pension schemes: Why does only Sweden distribute the survivor dividend? Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(3), 200-220. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2015.1028547

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C. (2013). An Assessment of the 2011 Spanish Pension Reform Using the Swedish System as Benchmark. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 13(3), 297-333. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747213000383

▪ Boado-Penas, M. del C., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2014). Nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes: is a survivor dividend necessary to make the system balanced? Applied Economics Letters, 21(4), 242-247. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.851767

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., & Boado-Penas, M. del C. (2013). Compiling the actuarial balance for pay-as-you-go pension systems. Is it better to use the hidden asset or the contribution asset? Applied Economics, 45(10), 1303-1320. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.615733

▪ Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2012). Individual information for pension contributions: Recommendations for Spain based on international experiences. International Social Security Review, 65(2), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.2012.001426.x

▪ Boado-Penas, M. del C., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2012). The Actuarial Balance of the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: the Swedish NDC model versus the US DB model. In R. Holzmann et al. (Eds.), NDC Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World, Vol. 2, 443-489. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9478-6

▪ WP 36: Vidal-Meliá, C., & Acion-Lopez, A. (2025). Ndc Benchmarking and Actuarial Fairness in Spain’s Db Pensions: Retirement, Disability, and Survivor Reversibility. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5875583

◦ Industry 4.0 Impacts Sub-line:

▪ WP 37: Ación Lopez, A., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Impacts of Industry 4.0 Technologies on Pension Systems: A Scoping Review. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5401961

The Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL/MCVL) as a Data Source (Since 2014)

Description and Objectives:Utilizes administrative microdata for the technical and empirical optimization of Spanish Social Security. Its main objectives are: addressing the lack of sample representativeness through mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) to generate accurate subsamples; quantifying differential longevity by income level and social security regime (self-employed vs. salaried); and modeling the mortality of vulnerable groups (disability), enabling the valuation of financial commitments and the reform of Occupational Accident and Disease rates using actuarially fair criteria.
Researchers and Participation (out of 8 items):Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero (8/8), Marta Regúlez Castillo (7/8), Vicente Núñez-Antón (2/8), Manuel Ventura-Marco (2/8), Anna Castañer-Garriga (1/8), and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (8/8).
Publications (APA Format):

◦ Longevity / Mortality Sub-line:

▪ Vidal-Meliá, C., Regúlez Castillo, M., & Pérez-Salamero González, J. M. (2025). Income Inequalities in Longevity Among Spanish Retirement Pensioners aged 65+. International Social Security Review, 78(4), 53-78. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.70014

▪ Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Regúlez Castillo, M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2022). Mortality and life expectancy trends in Spain by pension income level. International Journal for Equity in Health, 21(96), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-022-01697-2

▪ Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Regúlez Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2021). Differences in life expectancy between self-employed workers and paid employees. European Journal of Population, 37(3), 697-725. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-021-09585-1

▪ Castañer-Garriga, A., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). Evaluación de las tarifas de las pensiones de Accidentes de Trabajo y Enfermedades Profesionales (2011-2015). Innovar Journal, 27(66), 153-167. https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v27n66.66810

◦ Technical Aspects Sub-line:

▪ Núñez-Antón, V., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2020). Improving the representativeness of a simple random sample. Mathematics, 8(8), 1225. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8081225

▪ Nuñez-Antón, V., Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2019). Automatic regrouping of strata in the Goodness-of-Fit chi-square test. SORT, 43(1), 113-142. https://doi.org/10.2436/20.8080.02.83

▪ Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). The Continuous Sample of Working Lives: improving its representativeness. SERIEs, 8(1), 43-95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-017-0154-0

▪ Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2016). Análisis de la representatividad de la MCVL: el caso de las prestaciones del sistema público de pensiones. Hacienda Pública Española, 217(2), 67-130. https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.16.2.3

Divorce Insurance: Actuarial, Social, and Legal Aspects (Since 2024)

Description and Objectives:Investigates the creation of a new insurance market for the risk of marital breakdown. Its objectives are: validating the legality of divorce insurance within EU and Spanish law; segmenting risks using Machine Learning techniques (calibrated for rare events) to allow for precise pricing; and proposing a «sum-insured insurance» design to mitigate social externalities such as the risk of poverty for minors and women, thereby promoting marital stability.
Researchers and Participation (out of 5 items):Juan Bataller Grau (3/5) and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (5/5).
Publications and Working Papers (APA Format):

◦ Published:

▪ Bataller Grau, J., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). El seguro de divorcio como seguro de sumas: una propuesta desde el Derecho español. Revista de Derecho del Sistema Financiero, 10. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=10468587

▪ Bataller Grau, J., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Lawfulness of divorce insurance in European Union. In P. Marano (Ed.), Research Handbook on EU Insurance Law and Regulation. Edward Elgar.

◦ Working Papers (WP) and Works in Progress (WIP):

▪ WP 38: Vidal-Meliá, C., & Bataller-Grau, J. (2025). Divorce Insurance: Actuarial Reality, Legal Challenges, and Fictional Imagination. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5420834

▪ WP 35: Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Divorce Insurance: A Concept Ahead of Its Time or Doomed to Fail? Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, no. 2. https://docta.ucm.es/entities/publication/ced68a3f-d7c3-4b00-93d3-23ccf1e7740f

▪ WIP: Calibrated ML Risk Segmentation for Divorce Insurance: Evidence from 10,000 Synthetic Couples.

Principio del formulario

HISTORICAL RESEARCH LINES

Individual Savings-Pension Alternatives: Pension Plans (1993-1999)

Description and Objectives:This line focused on the third pillar of social protection and individual retirement contingencies. Its objectives were to conduct formalized savings-pension studies, formulate tax proposals to mitigate the lack of plan liquidity, and define investment strategies based on income profiles and tax brackets.
Researchers and Participation (out of 9 items):Enrique Devesa Carpio (7/9), María Paz Jordá Durá (2/9), Mar Devesa Carpio (1/9), and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (9/9).
Featured Publications (APA Format):

◦ Devesa Carpio, J. E., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (1999). Planes de pensiones individuales y sobreimposición. Revista Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa, 8(4), 135-148.

◦ Devesa, J. E., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (1997). Estrategias individuales de ahorro-pensión y perfiles de ingresos. Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad, XXVI(90), 167-195.

Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Accounts and Other Aspects of PAYG Systems (1999-2007)

Description and Objectives:Focused on the actuarial foundations of NDCs and their implementation. The objectives included analyzing the sustainability of international PAYG systems, modeling the transition from DB to NDC, and quantifying the subjective economic risk faced by beneficiaries within these schemes.
Researchers and Participation (out of 12 items):Inmaculada Domínguez Fabián (9/12), María del Carmen Boado-Penas (5/12), Enrique Devesa Carpio (4/12), Ana Lejárraga-García (2/12), Salvador Valdés-Prieto (1/12), and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (12/12).
Featured Publications (APA Format):

◦ Vidal-Meliá, C., Domínguez-Fabián, I., & Devesa-Carpio, J. E. (2006). Subjective Economic Risk to Beneficiaries in Notional Defined Contribution Accounts (NDC’s). The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(3), 489-515.

◦ Devesa-Carpio, J. E., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2004). Cuentas nocionales de aportación definida (NDC’s). ¿Cuál hubiera sido el efecto de su implantación en España? Moneda y Crédito, 219, 101-142.

Pension Modalities in Funded Systems (2000-2006)

Description and Objectives:This line aimed to clarify the «annuity puzzle» by modeling the bequest motive. It also focused on evaluating administrative costs in individual capitalization systems and analyzing the regulation of pension modalities across Latin American systems.
Researchers and Participation (out of 7 items):Enrique Devesa Carpio (5/7), Ana Lejárraga-García (5/7), Rosa Rodríguez Barrera (1/7), and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (7/7).
Featured Publications (APA Format):

◦ Vidal-Meliá, C., & Lejárraga-García, A. (2006). Demand for life annuities from married couples with a bequest motive. Journal of Pensions Economics and Finance, 5(2), 197-229.

◦ Lejárraga-García, A., Vidal-Meliá, C., & Devesa-Carpio, J. E. (2002). Regulación de las modalidades de pensión en los sistemas de capitalización de América Latina. Revista de Análisis Económico, 17(2), 49-94.

Instruments to Improve the PAYG System (2008-2016)

Description and Objectives:Focused on transparency and solvency tools for public pensions. The main goals were to demonstrate the utility of Actuarial Balance Sheets (ABS) as solvency indicators and to design Automatic Balance Mechanisms (ABM), inspired by the Swedish model, to neutralize political populism in pension reforms.
Researchers and Participation (out of 17 items):María del Carmen Boado-Penas (10/17), Marta Regúlez Castillo (5/17), Ole Settergren (4/17), Manuel García García (2/17), Salvador Valdés-Prieto (1/17), Francisco Navarro-Cabo (1/17), and Carlos Vidal-Meliá (17/17).
Featured Publications (APA Format):

◦ Vidal-Meliá, C., Boado-Penas, M. C., & Settergren, O. (2009). Automatic Balance Mechanisms in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, 34(2), 287-317.

◦ Boado-Penas, M. C., Valdés-Prieto, S., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2008). An Actuarial Balance Sheet for Pay-As-You-Go Finance: Solvency Indicators for Spain and Sweden. Fiscal Studies, 29(1), 89-134.

LÍNEAS DE INVESTIGACIÓN EN VIGOR

5. Instrumentos para mejorar el sistema de reparto 2.0: Pensiones mínimas, Invalidez y Dependencia (desde 2012)

• Breve descripción y objetivos: Esta línea expande la metodología del análisis actuarial hacia un enfoque de «grupo abierto» con devengo, integrando riesgos biométricos complejos. Sus objetivos primarios son: diseñar sistemas de Cuentas Nocionales (NDC) que absorban la volatilidad de las contingencias de invalidez y dependencia; desarrollar balances actuariales (ABS) integrados que revelen el coste real de la redistribución y las pensiones mínimas; y evaluar el impacto disruptivo de la Industria 4.0 en la sostenibilidad financiera, proponiendo mecanismos de ajuste ante la automatización del mercado laboral.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 23 ítems): Manuel Ventura-Marco (11/23), Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero (6/23), Anne Marie Garvey (6/23), María del Carmen Boado-Penas (5/23), Javier Pla-Porcel (4/23), Ahmed Ación López (2/23), Marta Regúlez Castillo (1/23), Francisco Navarro-Cabo (1/23), Anna Castañer (1/23) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (23/23).

• Publicaciones:

◦ Sub-línea Invalidez (4):

Garvey, A. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2021). Does the pension system’s income statement really matter? A proposal for an NDC scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 292-310. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1782246
Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. International Social Security Review, 70(3), 79-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12143
Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2016). Integrating retirement and permanent disability in NDC pension schemes. Applied Economics, 48(12), 1081-1102. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1093084
Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2014). An Actuarial Balance Sheet Model for Defined Benefit Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems with Disability and Retirement Contingencies. ASTIN Bulletin, 44(2), 367-415. https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2014.5

◦ Sub-línea Dependencia (7):

Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Garvey, A. (2024). Analyzing the demographic coherence of selected US, Australian and Chinese biometric data sets. Quality & Quantity, 58, 2813–2836. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01782-w
Ventura-Marco, M., Vidal-Meliá, C., & Pérez-Salamero González, J. M. (2023). Joint life care annuities to help retired couples to finance the cost of long-term care. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 113, 122-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.002
Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Pla-Porcel, J. (2020). An NDC approach to helping pensioners cope with the cost of long-term care. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 19(1), 80-108. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747218000070
Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Pla-Porcel, J. (2019). Unisex life care annuities embedded in a pay-as-you-go pension system. Journal of Population Ageing, 12(4), 405-426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-018-9229-3
Vidal-Meliá, C., Ventura-Marco, M., & Pérez-Salamero, J. M. (2018). Social insurance accounting for a notional defined contribution scheme combining retirement and long-term care benefits. Sustainability, 10(8), 2832. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082832
Pla-Porcel, J., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2017(10), 829-853. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2016.1258370
Pla-Porcel, J., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2016). Life Care Annuities (LCA) Embedded in a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Framework. ASTIN Bulletin, 46(2), 331-363. https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2015.27

◦ Sub-línea Cuentas Nocionales / Balances Actuariales (11):

Castañer, A., Garvey, A. M., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Transforming Eurostat’s Table 29 into an Actuarial Balance Sheet. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(9), 528. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18090528
Garvey, A., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2023). Transforming the supplementary table on pension liabilities (table 29) into an actuarial balance sheet. Public Money and Management, 43(8), 782-793. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2022.2144362
Garvey, A. M., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2022). Improving decision-making information: “Table 29” to an actuarial balance sheet. In M. Corazza, C. Perna, C. Pizzi, & M. Sibillo (Eds.), Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance (pp. 477–484). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99638-3_46
Garvey, A. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2021). The importance of reporting a pension system’s income statement and budgeted variances in a fair and sustainable scheme. In M. Corazza, M. Gilli, C. Perna, C. Pizzi, & M. Sibillo (Eds.), Mathematical and statistical methods for actuarial sciences and finance (pp. 275–282). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78965-7_34
Vidal-Meliá, C., Boado-Penas, M. del C., & Navarro-Cabo, F. (2016). Notional defined contribution pension schemes: Why does only Sweden distribute the survivor dividend? Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(3), 200-220. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2015.1028547
Vidal-Meliá, C., (2013). An Assessment of the 2011 Spanish Pension Reform Using the Swedish System as Benchmark. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 13(3), 297-333. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747213000383
Boado-Penas, M. del C., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2014). Nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes: is a survivor dividend necessary to make the system balanced? Applied Economics Letters, 21(4), 242-247. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.851767
Vidal-Meliá, C., & Boado-Penas, M. del C. (2013). Compiling the actuarial balance for pay-as-you-go pension systems. Is it better to use the hidden asset or the contribution asset? Applied Economics, 45(10), 1303-1320. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.615733
Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2012). Individual information for pension contributions: Recommendations for Spain based on international experiences. International Social Security Review, 65(2), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.2012.001426.x
Boado-Penas, M. del C., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2012). The Actuarial Balance of the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: the Swedish NDC model versus the US DB model. In R. Holzmann, E. Palmer, & D. Robalino (Eds.), NDC Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World, Vol. 2, 443-489. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9478-6

◦ Sub-línea Impacto de la Industria 4.0 en el sistema de reparto (1)

▪ WP 37: Ación Lopez, A., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Impacts of Industry 4.0 Technologies on Pension Systems: A Scoping Review. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5401961

6. La Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MCVL) como fuente de datos (desde 2014)

• Breve descripción y objetivos: Utiliza microdatos administrativos para la optimización técnica y empírica de la Seguridad Social española. Sus objetivos principales son: resolver la falta de representatividad muestral mediante programación no lineal (MINLP) para generar submuestras precisas; cuantificar la longevidad diferencial por nivel de renta y régimen (autónomos vs. asalariados); y modelizar la mortalidad de colectivos vulnerables (inválidos), permitiendo valorar compromisos financieros y reformar las tarifas de Accidentes de Trabajo y Enfermedades Profesionales con criterios actuarialmente justos.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 8 ítems): Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero (8/8), Marta Regúlez Castillo (7/8), Vicente Núñez-Antón (2/8), Manuel Ventura-Marco (2/8), Anna Castañer-Garriga (1/8) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (8/8).

• Publicaciones:

◦ Sub-línea Longevidad / Mortalidad (4):

Vidal-Meliá, C., Regúlez Castillo, M., & Pérez-Salamero González, J. M. (2025). Income Inequalities in Longevity Among Spanish Retirement Pensioners aged 65+. International Social Security Review, 78(4), 53-78. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.70014
Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Regúlez Castillo, M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2022). Mortality and life expectancy trends in Spain by pension income level. International Journal for Equity in Health, 21(96), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-022-01697-2
Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Regúlez Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2021). Differences in life expectancy between self-employed workers and paid employees. European Journal of Population, 37(3), 697-725. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-021-09585-1
Castañer-Garriga, A., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). Evaluación de las tarifas de las pensiones de Accidentes de Trabajo y Enfermedades Profesionales (2011-2015). Innovar Journal, 27(66), 153-167. https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v27n66.66810

◦ Sub-línea Aspectos Técnicos (4):

Núñez-Antón, V., Pérez-Salamero González, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2020). Improving the representativeness of a simple random sample. Mathematics, 8(8), 1225. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8081225
Nuñez-Antón, V., Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2019). Automatic regrouping of strata in the Goodness-of-Fit chi-square test. SORT, 43(1), 113-142. https://doi.org/10.2436/20.8080.02.83
Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2017). The Continuous Sample of Working Lives: improving its representativeness. SERIEs, 8(1), 43-95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-017-0154-0
Pérez-Salamero, J. M., Regúlez-Castillo, M., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2016). Análisis de la representatividad de la MCVL: el caso de las prestaciones del sistema público de pensiones. Hacienda Pública Española, 217(2), 67-130. https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.16.2.3

7. El Seguro de Divorcio: Aspectos Actuariales, Sociales y Jurídicos (desde 2024)

• Breve descripción y objetivos: Investiga la creación de un nuevo mercado asegurador para el riesgo de ruptura matrimonial. Sus objetivos son: validar la legalidad del seguro de divorcio en el Derecho de la UE y español; segmentar riesgos mediante técnicas de Machine Learning (calibradas para eventos raros) que permitan una tarificación precisa; y proponer un diseño de «seguro de sumas» que mitigue externalidades sociales como el riesgo de pobreza en menores y mujeres, fomentando la estabilidad conyugal.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 5 ítems): Juan Bataller Grau (3/5) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (5/5).

• Publicaciones y Working Papers:

◦ Publicaciones:

Bataller Grau, J., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). El seguro de divorcio como seguro de sumas: una propuesta desde el Derecho español. Revista de Derecho del Sistema Financiero, 10. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=10468587
Bataller Grau, J., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2025). Lawfulness of divorce insurance in European Union. En P. Marano (Ed.), Research Handbook on EU Insurance Law and Regulation. Edward Elgar.

◦ Working Papers (WP) y trabajos en curso (WIP):

▪ WP 38: Vidal-Meliá, C., & Bataller-Grau, J. (2025). Divorce Insurance: Actuarial Reality, Legal Challenges, and Fictional Imagination. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5420834

▪ WIP: Calibrated ML Risk Segmentation for Divorce Insurance: Evidence from 10,000 Synthetic Couples.

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LÍNEAS DE INVESTIGACIÓN HISTÓRICAS

1. Alternativas individuales de ahorro-pensión: Planes de Pensiones (1993-1999)

• Objetivos: Realizar estudios formalizados de ahorro-pensión, formular propuestas fiscales para atenuar la falta de disponibilidad de los planes y definir estrategias de inversión basadas en perfiles de ingresos-tipos impositivos.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 9 ítems): Enrique Devesa Carpio (7/9), María Paz Jordá Durá (2/9), Mar Devesa Carpio (1/9) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (9/9).

• Publicaciones destacadas (Formato APA):

◦ Devesa Carpio, J. E., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (1999). Planes de pensiones individuales y sobreimposición. Revista Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa, 8(4), 135-148.

◦ Devesa, J. E., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (1997). Estrategias individuales de ahorro-pensión y perfiles de ingresos. Revista Española de Financiación y Contabilidad, XXVI (90), 167-195.

2. El sistema de cuentas nocionales y otros aspectos de los sistemas de reparto (1999-2007)

• Objetivos: Desarrollar el fundamento actuarial de las NDC, analizar la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de reparto internacionales y cuantificar el riesgo económico subjetivo para los beneficiarios.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 12 ítems): Inmaculada Domínguez Fabián (9/12), María del Carmen Boado-Penas (5/12), Enrique Devesa Carpio (4/12), Ana Lejárraga-García (2/12), Salvador Valdés-Prieto (1/12) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (12/12).

• Publicaciones destacadas:

3. Modalidades de pensión en los sistemas de capitalización (2000-2006)

• Objetivos: Clarificar el «enigma de las rentas vitalicias» mediante la modelización del motivo de herencia y evaluar los costes de administración en los sistemas de capitalización individual.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 7 ítems): Enrique Devesa Carpio (5/7), Ana Lejárraga-García (5/7), Rosa Rodríguez Barrera (1/7) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (7/7).

• Publicaciones destacadas

◦ Vidal-Meliá, C., & Lejárraga-García, A. (2006). Demand for life annuities from married couples with a bequest motive. Journal of Pensions Economics and Finance, 5(2), 197-229.

4. Instrumentos para mejorar el sistema de reparto (2008-2016)

• Objetivos: Mostrar la utilidad de los balances actuariales como indicador de solvencia y diseñar mecanismos de ajuste automático (MAF) inspirados en el modelo sueco para neutralizar el populismo en pensiones.

• Investigadores y participación (sobre 17 ítems): María del Carmen Boado-Penas (10/17), Marta Regúlez Castillo (5/17), Ole Settergren (4/17), Manuel García García (2/17), Salvador Valdés-Prieto (1/17), Francisco Navarro-Cabo (1/17) y Carlos Vidal-Meliá (17/17).

• Publicaciones destacadas:

◦ Vidal-Meliá, C., Boado-Penas, M. C., & Settergren, O. (2009). Automatic Balance Mechanisms in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, 34(2), 287-317.

◦ Boado-Penas, M. C., Valdés-Prieto, S., & Vidal-Meliá, C. (2008). An Actuarial Balance Sheet for Pay-As-You-Go Finance: Solvency Indicators for Spain and Sweden. Fiscal Studies, 29(1), 89-134.